Friday, April 5, 2019

More Votes Are Counted; Cappleman Now Ahead By 56 23 (Updated)

The Chicago Board of Elections just posted today's vote count.

324 new votes were counted since Thursday afternoon. With the 203 votes that were tallied by the Board of Elections on Thursday, that's a total of 527 new votes counted since the polls closed on Tuesday night.

Cappleman moves ahead of Lalonde by a "whopping" 56 votes now. The new totals are:
  • 13,888 total votes counted in the 46th Ward so far.
  • Cappleman has 6,972 (50.20%)
  • Lalonde has 6,916 (49.80% )
Late voting totals come from Vote By Mail (absentee) ballots; from those who are incarcerated in the Cook County Jail; from 20 nursing homes throughout the city that had voting come to them on Monday; and provisional ballots that are found to be valid.

There's no way to know how many additional votes will come in. The Board of Elections will count them through April 16th, and the election will be certified on April 18th.

UPDATE: Per the results posted at the Board of Elections site, 163 new votes were added to the totals on Saturday, April 6th. With the new votes,
  • 14,051 total votes counted in the 46th Ward so far.
  • Cappleman has 7,037 (50.08%)
  • Lalonde has 7,014 (49.92% )


  1. Lala has some choices to make or would if she were Nico

    Now that it's time
    Now that the hour hand has landed at the end
    Now that it's real
    Now that the dreams have given all they had to lend
    I want to know do I stay or do I go
    And maybe try another time
    And do I really have a hand in my forgetting?

    After the inevitable becomes apparent does she file a lawsuit alleging serious skullduggery on the part of the Capp campaign?

    I know at least two attorneys with ties to the 46th ward who will say "YES, SUE, FILE A LAWSUIT. ATTACK. ATTACK. DAMN THE TORPEDOES. DID WE GIVE UP WHEN THE GERMANS BOMBED PEARL HARBOR? TOGA TOGA TOGA.

    Don't listen to them.

    Find an attorney with no ties to the ward or to the SJW movement and decide whether it's worth it.

    Personally, I hope she sues because it gives me the chance to continue mocking her. Finding her in those online vids standing in front of Capp's condo while the protesters chanted he was a racist wasn't enough for me. Yes, I found that and made sure the vids circulated among many voters.

    What you think I make my silly comments just because I'm a jerk? Well mostly, but come election time I have an agenda and I got my agenda out there indirectly through online comments because of the ankle monitor and restrictions the judge put on me.

    Generally speaking almost everything and I mean EVERYTHING went her way--except for the final results. Wozniak ran an inept campaign where she seemed to expect to be anointed more than work for it. Then the January mutual endorsement with "Mare Lightfoot". Luck and hard work. Hard work and luck.

    Couple that with a throw the bums out electorate and she ALMOST pulled it off, but I sacrificed too many pigeons to the electoral Gods for that to happen. In fact I need to go out and kill a few tonight in thanks.

    Lala can sue and damage her chances in 2023 or she can bide her time like Capp did in 2007 and she can run four years from now. Capp's likely to retire, he's said as much, and it's gonna be a multiple candidate field just like 2011 where barring any screwups she's just about guaranteed to make the runoff.

    What she lacks in experience and wisdom she somewhat makes up with a big analytic brain. She can take the lessons from this election and go forward or she can put on a Ginger Avenger Pugilistic Pose and damage herself. I'm hoping and betting she sues. The spectacle will amuse me.

    If she plays this right she might wangle herself a policy advisor gig for Mayor Lightfoot and run in 2023.

    She can learn from this passage about Chief Justice Roberts:

    Two years ago, Chief Justice John Roberts gave the commencement address at the Cardigan Mountain School, in New Hampshire. The ninth-grade graduates of the all-boys school included his son, Jack. Parting with custom, Roberts declined to wish the boys luck. Instead he said that, from time to time, “I hope you will be treated unfairly, so that you will come to know the value of justice.” He went on, “I hope you’ll be ignored, so you know the importance of listening to others.” He urged the boys to “understand that your success is not completely deserved, and that the failure of others is not completely deserved, either.” And in the speech’s most topical passage, he reminded them that, while they were good boys, “you are also privileged young men. And if you weren’t privileged when you came here, you’re privileged now because you have been here. My advice is: Don’t act like it.”

    So endeth the rant. Go with whatever God you may believe in.

    1. Only post updates to the numbers if they won't give me heartburn. I need a fire extinguisher right now.

      Those votes added in today are wild. Sixty percent for Lala and 40 percent for Capp. Earlier two days he was running at 52 percent plus in the late ballots.

      I cut a deal with Satan for Capp to win by 13 votes, but methinks Satan is screwing with me. You'd think he'd honor his agreements with me out of professional courtesy or sumtin. Then again he is the great deceiver.

      I ran votes that came in after February general election. One precinct was out that night, but it's likely about 723 came in not counting that precinct.

      690 late votes have come in so far. So probably 35 or so votes left to be counted. Maybe fewer given that are recent weather has been better and there was push to vote early.

      Lala would need 82 percent of the outstanding vote to tie it if my numbers are correct.

      I doubt there are more than 10-15 mail ins out and according to a tweet I saw provisional votes get counted on Wednesday. Supposedly any mail in votes that came in today will be counted on Monday.

      She shouldn't concede and Capp shouldn't declare victory.

      This is literally too close to call.

      Let me call up Satan and remind him of the photos I have of him and Rahm at the Farm at the Zoo late after the St. Pat's parade.

      Lord of Darkness or not he has a reputation to keep up.

  2. You reported the exact number of outstanding mail-in votes in the general election. Were these numbers not available during the run-off? If they were available, could you share that number?

    Math suggests there can't be that many votes left.

    Also, IrishPirate, you're hilarious. Never stop posting.

    1. I just reported the numbers from the 39 precincts that reported on election night plus my guesstimate of what the outstanding precinct posted. I printed out votes by precinct two days after Feb election and kept printout.

      You can subtract those numbers from the ultimate reported and get the number of late votes.

      Runoff final numbers aren't in as they have to count any provisional ballots that get don't get tossed out, likely fewer than 35 or so and any remaining mail in ballots.

      My guess is we're looking at maybe 25-40 ballots outstanding in total. No numbers were reported today.

      Supposedly provisionals are counted Wedneday.

  3. Replies
    1. Tune in Wednesday for a better idea.

      He likely has won because for Lala to triumph over Capp she needs something near 80percent of outstanding votes if there are 40 votes just to tie. If there are fewer she needs a higher percentage. If it's fewer than 23 then barring any recounts she's lost.

      I have serious questions about the votes that were counted on Saturday. If they were all mail in it defies statistical probability. If some of them were say ballots from our incarcerated gang friends at County Jail it makes sense.

      Based on percentages of earlier mail in votes counted Capp should have gotten 20 more votes. I could see a swing of 5 or ten votes, but 20 is really unlikely if they were all random.

      If there's a recount that day's batch of write ins will be getting examined heavily for possible fraud. I'd look for handwriting, a wildly disproportionate share coming from one building or precinct, handwriting, DNA and if many votes were requested from one IP address. That's internet provider NOT IrishPirate.

      You can request a write in ballot online.

      My guess is jail votes, but who knows what the Shadow knows. If there was skullduggery it will likely come out.

      I also don't believe Marianne Lalonde would be involved in anything like that, but a handful of her supporters are pond scum.

    2. 16 new votes she got 9 he got 7. Within reasonable expectations given low number counted. Should be it for today and probably last of all remaining mail ins.

      14,067 total

      7,044 50.07% our hero

      7,023 49.93% Boo, Hiss

      All that's likely left is provisional ballots. If numbers from February general election are indicative,and they seem to be, we're looking at say 18-25 votes or so to be counted.

      Capp's ahead by 21 so if the number out are less than 21 she's lost.

      If those overall outstanding vote numbers are correct she's have to win over 90 percent of remaining vote just to tie.

      I'm more likely to be captured and used for breeding purposes by the Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders than for that to happen. However, if being captured by the DCC is what's necessary for Capp to win I will sacrifice myself and my remaining self respect for the neighborhood.

      Now it's recount time and Lalonde will likely request one. I don't blame her for that. As long as she doesn't make WAA, Wild assed allegations, like her campaign did in trying to get Angela Clay thrown off ballot it shouldn't hurt her.

      One exception to that is if there was an attempt by some of her supporters to play naughty games with mail in ballots. Saturday's vote count was way out of line for what randomly should have been expected, but there's likely a reasonable explanation for that.

      If not--prepare to repel boarders!

  4. Ok I just saw a seemingly authoritative tweet that says provisional votes aren't counted tomorrow only "certified'. I'm guessing that means they decided if they're valid and should be counted.

    Those votes will be counted on Monday. Any new mail in votes that come in will be counted on Friday and next Tuesday. I expect few if any mail in ballots. They all should be in.

    Election certified on Thursday the 18th barring any lawsuits,recounts, locusts, or outbreaks of criminal twerking by former Uptown residents.

    If tomorrow the number of provisional ballots certified and not counted is twenty or under then Capp has won.

    If it's 21 or higher then theoretically Lalonde could win.

    Ain't this fun?

  5. Both campaigns have filed legal paperwork to contest the election and which ever one ends up with less votes will contest.

    Mark Brown of the Sun Times also has some numbers. Seems likely at least 40 votes or so left to count.

    Lalonde would have to get say 75 percent of outstanding votes to tie or win this thing--ain't likely, but in any case it's going to court.

    I think if I'm interpreting what I've found on the net next vote update is Friday with outstanding mail in votes counted.

    Thursday they'll finish deciding which provisional votes are valid and count them on Monday.

    On Tuesday they'll finish counting any remaining write in votes.

    On Thursday the 18th they'll certify the vote and the legal maneuvering will begin.

  6. The CappleTsunami continues.

    Twenty new votes were counted today.

    He got 12--YEAH

    She got 8--Boo Hiss

    He's now up by 25.

    Can't be many mail ins out if any at this point.

    Provisional votes get counted Monday. From what Mark Brown wrote the other day there's somewhere between 20-35 of those out.

    Let's say 30. If she got 28 she'd win by 1 vote. If she got 27 she'd lose by one vote.

    She needs 90plus percent.

    Aint likely.

    It's recount time and that ain't likely to change the outcome.

    Plus I've found evidence that space aliens, Lyndon LaRouche supporters, The Queen of England, the last of the Almighty Gaylord White street gang, and the ghosts of certain members of the 1969 New York Mets colluded in certain Buena Park precincts to rig the vote.

    Believe it or not.

  7. When do the D-2's come out so we can see who is funding the legal challenges. Who are the lawyers representing each candidate?

    1. I think the Illinois Campaign Contributions have to be updated quarterly and the next deadline is 15 April.

      The lawyers names should be on the paperwork filed to ask for a recount.

      In any case we'll know soon enough.