Uptown had the largest increase in home prices over the last decade (Q1 2000 to Q4 2010) of any Chicago neighborhood. According to this article in Crain's Chicago Business, the prices of single family homes increased an astonishing 39.3%. This is one metric, and does not include condominiums, which are much more prevalent in our neighborhood than single family homes.
This is likely a piece of good news for residents who have owned homes in Uptown over the last several decades.
Graph courtesy of Crain's Chicago Business
It's hard to read too much into this with Andersonville somewhat skewing the results and 2011 prices continuing where 2010 ended...in free fall. If you bought before 2000-2002, you're probably still ok. Those who bought 2004-2010 are probably hurting if they need to sell.ReplyDelete
Depending on who you talk to, (the bearish or the super bearish) the Chicago real estate market has another 5-20% further to fall, especially outside the highest of the high end which is rather insulated.
On the plus side, Uptown wasn't mentioned along with Pilsen and Garfield Park (shudders) as places where prices are likely to fall below 2001 levels, whether that was an oversight or intentional, who knows. If you take a long term view and if the community embraces market rate housing, there is reason for optimism, the bones are there and the hurdles far from insurmountable.
The saddest portion of the piece was the part on retail following home owners and in turn reinforcing the upward price movement. Thanks to some incredibly inept leadership, Uptown (especially Shiller's portion) failed to really capitalize on the momentum and the neighborhood's demographics were purposefully skewed to prevent meaningful commercial investment. A massive oppurtunity was wasted and I fear it will be a long time before the economic climate becomes friendly enough for another shot. I know the Maryville TIF is unpopular and for some good reasons, but I hope the value to Uptown in more market rate housing is obvious.
During the 90's Uptown was near the top of appreciation for neighborhoods in Chicago. Only Bucktown/Wicker Park were in that range.ReplyDelete
That appreciation continued into the early 2000's, but by around 2003 or so other neighborhoods started getting massive appreciation and Uptown actually lagged the average citywide increase.
Then the downturn hit and those other neighborhoods took larger hits while Uptown depreciated at a slower rate. Something similar occurred in Lakeview, Lincoln Park, Bucktown/Wicker and Edgewater.
I suspect that in terms of housing prices Uptown will do slightly better than the citywide average over the next decade.
Time will tell.
I say "Eyes Ahead" - There is plenty of room for price appreciation in Uptown. The demos of Uptown are not terminal by any means (as is evidenced by looking at census data or Target's decision to invest here). The potential that led to the run-up in the 2000's has not gone away. Yes, there was a bubble in American, Chicago, and Uptown, but many elements that make Uptown a desirable place to live have not gone away since 2008.ReplyDelete
We need to be optimistic and believe, and also take decisive action now to reverse course or correct many of mistakes of the past.
And I cannot agree with Alek more. Any increases in housing in Uptown need to be at Market Rate.
Uptown is a fill-in situation, surrounded by favorable demographics on three sides (sort of). We can either let it fill-in organically by taking deliberate actions now, or we can continue the history of making sure it remains the Doughnut Hole that it is today.
Yeah this is a very skewed presentation of mathematics. If you start your calculation in 2007, Uptown is undoubtedly among the BOTTOM in terms of property value growth..if anything, Uptown is at the TOP of the list of depressed property value. Trust me I know. My condo is now worth 40% what I paid for it in 2007. Please shoot me now.ReplyDelete
This is an index of single-home prices, not condos. I wonder what the stats are for how Uptown condos are holding their value? Lot’s of condo for sale signs and they don’t seem to be selling very well. Two of my neighbors units been for sale for a while, one gave up and after two years the other dropped the asking price to $55,000. below what they paid for it. Many current condo unit bank appraisals are for a lower value than the initial purchase price. In spite of improvements ours appraised at about $28,000. lower than the purchase price.ReplyDelete