Saturday, January 22, 2011

More Campaign Number Crunching

click to enlarge

A reader with a flair for numbers did some analysis of the 46th Ward campaign financial disclosures and sent it to us. 

"Note that the D-2 filings are for July 1 through December 31, but that there may also be A-1 filings before then that are for the period January 1, 2011 through today.  [A-1 filings are required of any contribution in excess of $1,000.]  That's the most comprehensive way to assess ability to raise money and current cash on hand today (post 12/31)."

He or she created the table above with an overview of the campaign information we know so far, and says:

"Here's my updated look at the numbers with Phelan, Carroll and Stewart added (file attached).  This is how their current cash on hand looks based on 12/31 cash on hand, plus disclosed post-12/31 contributions...
  • Cappleman $70,669
  • Nowotny $47,639
  • Retta $45,303
  • Phelan $40,054
  • Stewart $34,257
  • Carroll $16,059
  • Kaplan $2,368
  • Baskin (undisclosed)
  • Lam (undisclosed)
  • McIntyre (undisclosed)
  • Shapiro (undisclosed)
This is how their current net assets look when subtracting out outstanding loans from the totals above... 
  • Cappleman $56,669
  • Phelan $40,054
  • Retta $20,103
  • Carroll $16,059
  • Kaplan $2,368
  • Stewart $305
  • Baskin (undisclosed)
  • Lam (undisclosed)
  • McIntyre (undisclosed)
  • Shapiro (undisclosed)
  • Nowotny ($23,206)"


  1. Baskin is showing $8800 on his A-1 Filings.

    He likely has the capability of putting a whole lot of his own money into the campaign if he chooses. If we start seeing numerous campaign flyers from him and robocalls I would take that as an indication he's spending some cash.

    What strikes me about the overall numbers is how badly Nowatny is doing and Carroll's anemic numbers from the ward. I counted about 7 "donators" from 60613/60640 for Carroll. I really thought they would both be doing better moneywise.

    Elections are obviously about more than just money, but looking at the number of local "donators" does give an imperfect view of local support. Shiller had relatively few local "donators" and she managed to win. Of course I think that had more to do with name recognition, mayoral support and bloc voting than merely local cash.

    The only thing I am confident about in round one of Alderpalooza is that Cappleman will be on the April ballot. After that it's difficult to see with so many other candidates vying to make the April ballot.

    Here's a potential breakdown of votes for round one without naming candidates.

    1. 31%

    2. 17%

    3. 16%

    4. 13%

    5. 7%

    6. 3%

    7. 3%

    8. 3%

    9. 3%

    10. 2%

    11. 2%

    Every candidate is likely to get at least a few percent of the vote given the general way people vote. "Oh, look that name is the same initials as my dog, Wrigley. I'll vote for him/her."

  2. Are you willing to put money that Cappleman will make the April ballot?

  3. Campaigning 101. How to spend $95,000.00 in six months. By Neighbors for Nowotny.

  4. The thing that concerns me about Baskin is that he's the only candidate (that I'm aware of) who said he'll be a part-time alderman and will keep his day job. I think the ward is in a condition that it needs all the attention it can get. Hell, I'll vote for an amnesiac alderman if we can find one. ;-)

  5. UptownDude,

    if someone wants to say they believe that another candidate would make a better alderman than Cappleman that's an opinion. Within reason I can accept that.

    Now any reasonable person would say at this point Cappleman is the frontrunner. Experience, money, name recognition and TEN other candidates splitting the vote.

    Dick Simpson, former aldercritter and current pundit and professor, has stated that. I generally find Simpson rather annoying, but it's obvious he's correct in that assessment.

    That doesn't mean Cappleman is a sure thing to prevail in April. Ask President Hillary Clinton about sure things. He's damn near certain to make the runoff though.

    I had expected it to be a Cappleman/Nowatny runoff. Nowatny has proven an inept fundraiser and campaigner. Maybe he thinks what machine support he has will help him make the runoff.

    I'm going to be watching donations over the next few weeks, but from reading his D-2 I'm guessing parts of "da machine" have written Don off. I would if I were them. Notice how Don paid off his loans by making loans to his own campaign.

    Now for those of you who plan to comment here and say something silly like "I don't plan to support candidate X, but they are just super tough and I think X will win it outright in February, please.

    There's gonna be a runoff and it will be Cappleman V ?

    Bet on that UptownDude.

    Right now only two candidates seem to be playing smart AND raising money. The name "Nowatny" is not in that small group.

    Eleven candidates and then a runoff works to the advantage of the front runners. Most of these candidates will be lucky to reach double digits in terms of voting percentage.

    As for Baskin not wanting to be a full time alderman I'm not surprised. He's hardly even a part time candidate. Maybe he will put lotsa money and hard work into the campaign over the next 4 weeks. Maybe.

  6. Campaign debt is a worrisome thing.

  7. I am glad there are people to crunch numbers so I don't have to......Mama Mia!!!!

  8. I would not take the capplemen bet, because I think that is 50-50. I am sure the election could not come soon enough for him, so that he can hang on to his name recognition. I would bet $100, however, that no one, gets anywher near 31 percent of the vote. The front runner will have more like 25 percent of the vote. That is why all it takes to get into the runoff will probably be around 2000 votes.

  9. my guess:
    about 11,500 people vote.

    And the break down is something like:

    1. 2600
    2. 2000
    3. 1700
    4. 1500
    5. 1000
    6. 800
    7. 600
    8. 400
    9. 400

    If I was to guess positions right now they would be:

    1. phelan
    2. cappleman
    3. Retta
    4. Nowotny
    5. stewart
    6. Carroll
    7. Kaplan
    8. Baskin
    9. Lam
    10. Shapiro
    11. McIntyre

  10. Samantha, a guess is a guess is a guess. Cappleman got more money from ward residents than anyone else, he also has more money to spend, he has more name recognition because of the last election, he's been out in the community a lot more, and Prof. Simpson who has more political expertise than both of us says Cappleman is the frontrunner.

    Had Molly been the only woman in a field of a large group of men, it would help her some, but that's no longer the case. It's fine to guess, but give a few supporting statements to back your claim.

  11. Samantha,

    I know, that U know, that I know that your name isn't "Samantha" and you aren't even female. U know? That's ok, I'm neither Irish nor a pirate. Don't tell anyone.

    As for your comments in the past that you support Nowotny, but figure Phelan will win, please. My "super tough" comment earlier was directed to you. I fully expected you to crawl out from under your Phelan sign to post.

    You've supported Molly the whole time. Nothing wrong with that,
    she's a legitimate candidate.

    Now the Bears are playing right now which means my sexy self can walk the sunny streets of our fine city without running into many annoying people. I need me some sun.

    With the increase in voter registration and Rahmapalooza going on the total vote will likely be at least 15,000 or more. In February 2007 it was about 11,300 if my memory serves.

    If I guess the standings at the end of round one I would go



    Retta or Nowatny(flip a coin)



    and like Gilligan's island "the rest".

    Outside the top two positions it's difficult to predict. Candidates will be poaching voters from other candidates and vice versa. I also fully expect the lowest ranking candidates to get at least a few percent of the vote apiece.

    Many people will just choose a candidate based on the ethnicity or gender of the name.

    One question that's up in the air for me is whether Baskin plans to spend a great deal of moola trying to buy a place on the April ballot.

    It's possible for a wealthy candidate to do that sort of thing if he's willing to invest in the campaign workers and mailings. I don't think he'd be successful making the April ballot, but I know some campaign consultants who would love to take his money.

    Find me at a local watering hole around 11PM on election night when people will be referring to me as PiratNak the Magnificent.

  12. Craig Gernhardt said...

    Campaigning 101. How to spend $95,000.00 in six months. By Neighbors for Nowotny.


    $35,000 of that was paying off a loan, with a loan to his own campaign apparently, so it isn't quite as bad as it seems.

    Although the Bears are down by apparently Nowatny is now coaching the Bears.

  13. I've noticed that Retta's campaign is really picking up steam and the "presumed" frontrunners feel him coming on and are worried!

    And I'm not so sure about
    Cappleman. Yeah he has the most money, but that obviously has never helped him in the past.

    Boohoo what you said is so ture!

    I think about 20,000 people will go out and vote, and there wil most definitely be a run off!

  14. "Cappleman. Yeah he has the most money, but that obviously has never helped him in the past. -UL

    UL, I wonder if you are referring to 2007 when Helen outspent Cappleman by hundreds of thousands of dollars and he still got 47% of the vote? I would agree that had he lost by a lot, it would hurt his chances now, but that wasn't the case and maybe that's why there are more residents in the ward who are financially supporting his race than the others.

    Which leads to this bit of advice to all those candidates who hope to run for a higher office: If you lose miserably this time around, your chances of ever getting elected to a higher office ain't so good. People don't like financially backing big losers in past races. Jus say'in.

  15. I've been to several of the forums and it seems everyone has the same thing to say. I hope whoever gets in there will be able to bring ALL the areas of the city together and not just focus on specific precincts, areas, groups or whatever. I want an alderman who is for all the people!! Retta has been working with aldermanic offices for a long time now, so he has the benefit of knowing something about what to expect if he gets in office. Cappleman has the benefit of being on the ballot before and his financial backing. Nowatny has the benefit of his position w/the city and his access to everyone on a daily basis if he's made good relationships along the way. Those 3 would be my guess for the frontrunners. I hope whoever gets in there is a full-time Alderman and has the passion and energy and love of the entire ward to do what's right for the whole ward.

  16. Thevoter: I too hope that the elected individual will be able to bring the ward together and represent all its members.

    That being said: I think your comment doesn't give due credit to Cappleman's dedication to the ward and the actions he has performed (without being alderman) for Uptown thus far.

    You mention Retta's understanding of what to expect when he gets to office based on working with alderman, but I would argue that Cappleman has an understanding of what to expect since he has already been doing it.

    I do agree with you that all the candidates seem to be saying the same thing. I think we can all agree whomever is elected will be better than our current elected official.