Thursday, January 20, 2011

D-2s! Yoo-Hoo, Lookie-Loos!

It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year... well, if you're a political wonk (and we are). What day is it? D-2 Day, when we get a chance to peek behind the curtain at the candidates' financial statements and see how much money they have in their war chests, who's giving it to them, and what they're spending it on. This reporting period is for the second half of 2010. (You can see the reports from the first half of the year here.)

It was always fun to see where Ald. Shiller got her contributions, and how very few came from local voters. Now we'll have a chance to take out our magnifying glasses and apply the same test to the current candidates. They have until midnight to file electronically, and we'll try to keep on top of it. As of right now, there are just a few filings; we'll keep checking.


  1. Oh, Mr. Retta - Michelle's last name is Fire, not "BIg Chick." :)

  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

  3. Retta will have lots of explaining todo tomorrow!

  4. Why does Retta have explaining to do? I know many parking attendants with $10,000 of disposable income to give to political campaigns.

  5. Whats up with Don's expenses on consultants? Are these expenses for his Campaign workers?

  6. Many candidates apparently didn't feel the need to file the required paperwork by the midnight deadline... unless I missed 7 of the 11 currently on the ballot for the 46th. Did I miss them? What is the penalty for not filing? Fines...? Being booted from the ballot...? Anything...?

  7. I believe it's just fines if you file late or incorrectly (Todd Stroger paid some decent sized ones for botched reports a few years ago IIRC).

    But I don't think the State Board of Elections web site is totally comprehensive and it's been known to go down a lot on days like D-2 filing day, and I assume that also goes for the submitting reports part of the site, and I think candidates can file on paper which might mean a lag on it showing up.

    So kind hard to tell if any of them are D-2 overdue scofflaws yet....

  8. Molly's report is filed here.

    Carroll's report is here.

    Stewart's is here.

    Baskin's larger contributions are up.

    Some of the reports show very similar filing times earlier today so I'm guessing the system was overburdened and the reports were filed in a timely fashion.

    Nothing on the other candidates so far.

    No hyperlinks because it is cold out and that annoys me.

  9. Ok a few observations as I peruse the various reports.

    If you look at cash on hand versus debt Cappleman is doing well. Phelan is right behind. Nowatny is in the red;although, he did pay off some of his earlier lenders.

    Carroll and Stewart's fundraising has been anemic.

    Retta's contributions seem to be largely coming from the African immigrant community. His large amount of non itemized contributions likely came from lots of small contributions at his fundraiser. Nothing necessarily nefarious there.

    Phelan has done better than last reporting period in getting donations from people in the ward, but still seems to be drawing the bulk of her cash from outside the ward. Likely family, friends and business associates.

    Marc Kaplan is showing how few supporters he truly has, but I'm sure he will run his campaign on sweat equity and xeroxed flyers.

    Based on my observations here and other impressions I am willing to make some predictions.

    1. Kaplan will not be on the April ballot.

    2. Two people will be on the April ballot. None of said people will be named Kaplan.

    3. Nowatny seems to be comfortable with great debt. If elected he will fit right in with his fellow aldercritters.

    4. If the election were held today I think I know which two candidates would make the runoff. None of said candidates are named Marc.

    5. The election ain't being held today and things might change. Not enough that one of the runoffers is named Kaplan......but you get the idea.

    6. It's gonna be fun to watch. Unless your name is Marc.

  10. At this point only Cappleman and Phelan seem to be doing well fundraising wise. By that I mean actually raising money and not loaning money to their campaigns in massive amounts.

    If you look at outside the ward contributors Molly is clearly leading in that category.

    Inside the ward breaking down contributions by zip code Molly leads in 60613 and Cappleman leads in 60640.

    Here are the ward numbers since January 2010 minus the loans Cappleman made to his campaign. Not all of these contributions come from within the ward, but it was easiest to break them down by zip code.


    33 receipts totaling $8,775.00 from 60613

    120 receipts totaling $49,851.79 from 60640


    48 receipts totaling $25,496.90 from 60613

    32 receipts totaling $15,278.36 from 60640

    Cappleman has more contributors in the ward, but Phelan's tend to make larger contributions.

    Minus his loans Cappleman has about $54,000 on hand. Phelan has about $32,000.

    Nowatny is not seemingly putting forth much of a fundraising effort. I had expected him to make the runoff. Right now he's gone from probable runoff to the possible runoff Pirate Prediction column. If he doesn't make it I expect it will be because someone named Phelan outworked and out fundraised him.

    So my prediction is that on February 22 Cappleman will make the runoff and will face either Nowatny or Phelan in April.

  11. is this the same guy that gave to molly?

    If so, she has some explaining to do

  12. Jane - That does appear to be the same John Pikarski - the recently embroiled Cook County Ethics Board Chair who had ties to Cook County Assessor Joe Berrios.

    And, Ms. Molly Phelan has been a loyal contributor to Joe "I only hire my relatives" Berrios - the new Cook County Assessor. Interestingly, Molly (or Mary Anne) lists two different addresses for her donations to Berrios - her Chicago law office and her hometown of Berwyn.

    I wonder how many Phelans or cousins of Phelans will be working for the Ward office is Molly is elected?

  13. Did anyone else notice how much Molly Phelan is spending on payroll and consultant costs? Everytime I walk past her campaign office, I see the same people there. I wonder if she has any volunteers for from the 46th ward?

  14. "4554 Broadway LLC"


    Who are these guys?

  15. Cub Reporter:

    Huh? I don't understand the connection.


  17. I believe Phelan said she has no ties to the Phelans in Berwyn.

    She grew up in the North burbs.

    As for Pikarski she seems to be getting a great deal of money from lawyers who deal in property tax appeals. Which makes sense since that is what Phelan does at her family law firm.

    If you receive hundreds of donations there will certainly be people there with some ethics or legal problems.

    My biggest negative issues with Molly, outside the fact that she looks better in a dress than I do, is the family law firm association and her being the "ward coordinator" for Terry O'Brien when he ran for County Board Prez.

    It's hard to be an independent voice in the council when Assessor Berrios will be deciding how much "reductions" your family law firm clients receive.

    It's called "leverage".

    It looks like the 9 fingered wonder will be Mayor in a few months. To me he is a shorter, smarter, Jewish version of the current leprechaun in charge. That doesn't bode well for open government in Chicago.

    If you want to be an independent voice in the council it's difficult when there is "leverage' that can be discreetly held over you.

    Now someone who is more ambitious than me might want to check out the attorney and real estate contributors on Phelan's D2 page and compare them to contributors to Madigan, Berrios, and Terry O'Brien.

    I checked out the very preppy sounding Whitney Carlisle and found some overlap.

    By the way this shouldn't be a pick on Molly thread. She did well fundraising both inside and outside the ward and she DOES have local volunteers.

    Within a few hundred feet of my present location there are people who got signatures for Molly, Cappleman and Stewart to get on the ballot. All within a handful of buildings on one little street.

  18. On this ridiculously cold Friday evening I leave you with something non election related.

    "Friday on My Mind".

    With 31 days till the election we'll have plenty of time to support and criticize various candidates.

  19. I guess I'm not surprised that James and Molly are leading the pack in fundraising. They've both been consistent presences--and leaders--in the ward for the past few years, and they've made a lot of deep personal connections.

    I respect them both, and both bring good, distinct qualities to the table. I think James is a genuinely compassionate man (certainly moreso than the Helen crew, who perpetuate poverty so they can profit from it) and would be uniquely qualified to heal a lot of old wounds in the community because he does want to work with all citizens in the ward. But I also think Molly is a particularly sharp woman, who would be be uniquely qualified to bring new ideas into spearheading major ward projects, such as the renovation of the Wilson El Stop.

    I'd be happy with either as my alderman, and am almost unhappy that I have to make the choice. It was easier when I thought all I had to do was vote against the venomous idiot currently in office.

  20. Agree, pc. Actually, many of the candidates have good ideas. I don't think it's so important to have the best ideas though. It matters to me that the next alderman has the ability to work with the community's best ideas to move the ward forward. It also needs to be someone who has already done a lot of problem solving throughout the ward with a lot of different people, including some elected officials.

    For me, that narrows the field to one person. If one candidate pops to mind when I say this, then ask yourself why did you immediately think of that person? May the best candidate win.

  21. @ holy moley..."I don't think it's important to have the best ideas though." That doesn't make any sense--we all should want someone with the best ideas.

    And btw--I know some elected officials in the area that are not keen on James or Molly, but prefer Don. James and Molly have been more visible in a certain part of the community no question--but that doesn't mean that they have worked with diverse groups in the community or are better equipped to work with our elected officials.

    I'm a Don supporter but I also like Stewart and Baskin. They both bring a lot of good ideas and qualities to the table.

  22. IrishPirate said It looks like the 9 fingered wonder will be Mayor in a few months. To me he is a shorter, smarter, Jewish version of the current leprechaun in charge. That doesn't bode well for open government in Chicago.

    I sincerely hope that whoever is elected alderman has a big seat belt, and is prepared to fight as much for the entire city as for the 46th ward -- because if Rahmmy wins, it’s going to be a bumpy night.

    Mayor of Chicago? Try Wall Street.

  23. I know some elected officials in the area that are not keen on James or Molly, but prefer Don.

    So, the same geniuses who have done such a bang up job in maintaining a high level of public safety and managing the fiscal responsibilities of the city prefer Don.

    Good to know.