Friday, April 17, 2009

Aldermanic Predictions for 2011

Russ Stewart has an article in the Chicago Daily Observer analyzing the aldermanic races in 2011and how their outcomes will affect the composition of the City Council. Contrary to what many in Uptown believe, he states that Ald. Shiller will run for office again that campaign:

Several white aldermen, including North and Northwest Siders Banks, Mell, Brian Doherty (41st), Vi Daley (43rd) and Joe Moore (49th) are pondering retirement. Incumbents Levar, Stone, O’Connor, Schulter, Allen, Laurino, Scott Waguespack (32nd), Brendan Reilly (42nd) and Helen Shiller (46th) will run.

Read the rest of the article, entitled Retiring Aldermen Could Create Clout Vacuum, here.


  1. Russ Stewart has an amazing track record of being WRONG.

    I would put no credence into anything he says in this article.

    Personally I think St. Helen of Wilson Yard will run again, but I really am just guessing.

    So is Stewie.

  2. Russ justifies pointing out race by stating "But it’s a matter of longevity, not race"

    Really Russ? Then why write that in the article? Seems like an arbitrary point then if you are going to add that HUGE BUT in the next paragraph.

    Well since this is America and we love talking about Race, Race, Race, and Race, I do feel we could learn from our Black and Hispanic brothers when... "Black and Hispanic aldermen serve a term or two, and lose.

    Does anyone feel that for the sake of race relations in America that Helen should take one for the team and adopt this policy?

  3. Ald. Shiller outspent me well over 3 to 1, and squeaked by with 53% of the vote. I have since heard that many of her supporters were stunned that she barely pulled it off.

    Those who know me can say I haven't been idle since the last election. While I'm doing many of the same things before I ever considered a run, I've also worked hard to build coalitions throughout the entire ward rather than focus on issues affecting the core of Uptown. I have learned a lot in the past few years.

    I'm looking forward to some real change in 2011.

  4. James, I'm guessing you'll find a few more supporters if you decide to run in the next election.

    Me likey change.

  5. I wonder when we'll get rid of the gerrymandering--or should we call it the aldermen decide how they can rig their wards for the most votes and to hell with the neighborhoods.

  6. Sounds to me like the Capplemaniac is going to run agin'.

    Remember Shiller ran numerous times before she managed a close win in 1987.

    Given the city tax increases, general voter discontent, and a likely flat at best economy I wouldn't be betting on any endangered incumbents.

    I think Alderfoisgras Moore will likely be defeated and if he manages to cheat death a few more years I expect Alderondeathsdoorstep Stone will be defeated also.

    As for Shiller she'll be fine living on her pension, rental income and social security after her defeat........I expect a Nixonian exit where she'll wave before she boards the JPUSA graffiti Bus into exile someplace where she isn't loathed. Her last words to her constituents: "You won't have Helen Shiller to kick around anymore. I'll get you my pretties and your TIF money too...........I'm meltingggggggggggggg......."

  7. What about Molly Phelan? She's spearheaded some super-out-loud change and taken on the powers that be. Why not Molly for Alderman?

  8. Mr. Cappleman, please run! We need desperate change and with the increase in crime and things just getting worse, I think you will have many more supporters. You are well aware of what needs to be done here and the obstacles this community faces.

  9. Libby I don't think Molly has shown any interest in running.

    I think she likes practicing law.

    But really it's her call.

    Shiller would say that is what the whole FWY lawsuit is really about so I caution people throwing her name out there for Alderman.

  10. I don't give a hoot what Alderman Shiller thinks or says about a potential candidate; I care what voters think and on given that more relevant constituency, Molly has no reason to hide. In fact, there's no reason for any candidate to be all cloak-and-daggery about running. Besides, if Molly's a comer, she'll have the response to the charge you anticipate. Come to think of it, any candidate should welcome that salvo from Shiller.

  11. Unfortunately, Libby you must not understand Chicago Politics and what it takes to win against Shiller.

    Have you personally talked to Molly to see if she has any interest in running? There is nothing she has stated that I can find that she is even interested.

    I take it you have a problem with James Cappleman that came pretty close to beating Shiller in the last election.

    I think it's important to support him since he has already expressed interest in running again.

    Not to mention all the hard work he does for Uptown and the whole community.

  12. Whuh? What is so threatening about the suggestion of another candidate? I've got no beef with Cappleman. I just think political competition is healthy, that there are lots of good potential candidates out there, that we should encourage it, we should depart from the annoint and appoint mind-set that is the Chicago machine at every opportunity, and that we should ditch this scardy-cat, oooooh Helen is so big and bad thing. It's silly. If James has the chops, cool. If Molly has 'em, cool. If you have them, cool.

    So, R, what's your beef with THAT?

  13. IrishPirate, you also have a track record of being wrong too.

    You said James Cappleman would win by 1000 votes.

    My predictions...

    If the housing market is still stale by summer 2010, then the race will definitely be tighter (i.e. in favor of the anti-Shiller candidate)

    If the Target is open by Christmas 2010, that gives a couple points over to Shiller.

    If another person who can appeal to the public safety demographic (but supports some kind of affordable housing, including ownership like Habitat for HUmanity) runs in addition to the Uptown Chicago Commission associated candidate, Shiller will win. (Even if there's a runoff,

    I would predict that Shiller would run, but soon afterward, turn the office over to someone else. I don't agree with that ( i think any appointed replacements need to be mandated to sit out 1-2 terms before running again for that office), but seems politically "wise" (and that is in quotes)

    i hear this stuff about Shiller having so much money....but the anti-Shiller camp has had 20 years to build a resistance. Far longer than Shiller took to win her seat.

    If you can raise $50,000 in less than a year for most likely failed legal stunt (i.e. Fix Wilson Yards), why can't $200,000 be done in 4 years?

    Right after James lost, it shouldn't have been a mystery to prepare for 2011!

    If i am wrong in my predictions, than I will work with youto make a video on YouTube where I say to your face I was wrong.

    If i win the bet, i only ask that a couple of you anonymous ones (like Tanya Lawler or IrishPirate) show your faces & real names, even for a single clear photo.

    I won't mock you, or even publish it. I just want to know that you a real human being.

  14. I wonder if Shiller has a better chance of winning if the vote gets split between two other challengers? In that case, I'd rather have a selection committee decide the better person to run as what happened last time.

    If Helen doesn't run, well may the best man or woman win. Right now, anyone but Helen.

  15. I just want to know that you a real human being.As opposed to what? An elf? A Magic 8-ball?

    This obsession you have with seeing who's behind the screen names is as bizarre and Helenstens'. Why don't you subpoena Google?

  16. The point I am trying to make is Molly has given me no indication she is interested in running for Alderman so why throw her name out there?

    To give Helen credibility that the whole FWY lawsuit is stunt because Molly is really interested in being Alderman?

    Anyone that wants to run can all they have to do is get the signatures to get on the ballot.

  17. I might add that is exactly what Peter and Helen want people to think is that Molly is gunning for Alderman.

    And they read this site so even stating that you are feeding into what they want people to think.

  18. In Chicago election law if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote in an aldermanic or citywide election then a runoff is held between the top two vote getters.

    Two candidates enter........only one leaves standing.

    As for the other question directed toward me specifically I don't engage "head cases" in conversation lest I contribute to their obsessions.

    Now if you will excuse me it may be nighttime in Chicago, but it's daytime in my current location.

    Don't worry though. I shall return to donate to whoever runs against Shiller well before the electoral rumble in 2011.

  19. Whether Molly has given YOU any indication she is interested in running for Alderman is irrelevant. I simply asked a question, “Why not Molly?” It’s just as reasonable as “Why not you?”

    And the idea that “throwing her name around” is some sort of dirty bomb, or that the linkage to the Fix Wilson Yards lawsuit would only kill her chances is just absurd. Molly is a smart gal and could easily answer that charge.

    What’s more interesting to me is the idea that I am somehow a pawn of Helen and Peter because I dared speak “her” name. Now tell me, are you so touchy because you fear your man James can’t take the heat (from Molly or anyone else) or do you really think Helen and Peter are that deep into disinformation? They, along with the Mayor, sit around, sip coffee, read this blog and plot. Puhleeeeze.

  20. Throwing Molly's name out there walks right into the trap set by Helen Shiller.

    Her accusation that Molly was positioning to run against her was a complete shot in the dark. It only hits a target if you move the target and increase its size.

  21. JP Paulus says:

    "but the anti-Shiller camp has had 20 years to build a resistance."

    I found that to be an interesting comment because I am not so sure that there has been an "anti-Shiller" camp for 20 years. Shiller was elected because a good percentage of middle class people in the ward felt the same about "urban renewal" and really sleazy Chicago style politics too. Remember, O.N.E. used to have block clubs included in its membership and the ward was geographically different too. And, there has been a lot of voter turnover. And, Helen is really good at getting out the vote.

    I don't think that it is fair to say that there has been a sustained "anti-Shiller" camp for a very long time although I would say that it began to reach critical mass maybe 10 years ago?

    The problem with Shiller is that she isn't your typical political animal. Sure, she has learned to play ball with City Hall but she isn't about to let a bunch of young'uns tell her about Uptown or make her change her mind about how the world works. In many ways, I can respect that. She's got her views & the issues she cares about and she is going to stay true to them no matter what. Unfortunately, her exclusive focus on "affordable housing" came at the expense of how to create a healthy, vibrant mixed-income community once you have an assortment of folks living here. She had all of the tools (grassroots activism, deep knowledge of the community, a commitment to giving people "voice") but she couldn't ever seem to build a diverse enough coalition as the ward began to change. IMHO, I think she hates the newer owners because they represent the bourgeois life/values she herself so thoroughly tried to reject. It is like she has no vocabulary left to deal with such people.

    I fear that whomever is alderman 5 years or 10 years from now will still be struggling with how polarized the ward is. I have hope but there is a lot of hard work yet to be done.

  22. "They, along with the Mayor, sit around, sip coffee, read this blog and plot. Puhleeeeze."

    Nah. They sit around, drink coffee, read this blog (and others) and file subpoenas.

  23. Russ Stewart's column on February 14, 2007 stated the following, which proved to be accurate in this case, while still proving that her win would be a squeaker...


    Winds of change – generational, factional, ideological, and legal – are gusting in a half dozen Chicago wards, and threaten the re-election of six aldermen, who have a combined service of 112 years.
    ...Helen Shiller, age 59, has been alderman of the rapidly gentrifying Uptown 46th Ward since 1987. For the “progressive” Shiller, economic development is a dirty word. She wants to keep her constituents poor and in apartments, not rich and in upscale townhomes and condos." Prediction:
    “Shiller’s core vote is under 6,000…She will win again, but just barely.” (2/14/07)


    In 2003 Mr. Stewart predicted Shiller would lose.

    "Shiller won by just 961 votes in 1991, upped that to 1,528 in 1995, but then dropped to 1,250 in 1999. She claims that she supports Daley on "94 percent of all issues," and since 1999 she has supported his budget (after opposing it the previous 12 years). My prediction: Rumors abound that Daley may endorse Shiller (even though she backed Bobby Rush in 1999), just to have some dissenters in the council. Her 2003 foe is Sandra Reed, a teacher and Democratic ward committeeman, who ran against her in 1999. Reed is black, and she is not deemed to be the strongest possible Shiller opponent. But demographics are working against Shiller, and she likely will lose by just under 300 votes this time."

  25. The election is still far away, but keep in mind Helen gets almost all her campaign money from developers, lobbyists, attorneys, and politicians from outside the ward. Businesses also give under threats of retaliuation. All those challengers will be competing with one another to get most of their funds from local residents. With a split pot of donations, Helen gets further ahead in already far outspending anyone who runs against her. Voters make the election but lots of money gives an advantage.

    I'm all about choice and don't believe anyone should be handed this job. I hope to see a process in place that has us donating money and volunteering for one candidate running against Helen. If you look at Helen's D-2's, she's raising money for something. I wonder why?

  26. Helen gets almost all her campaign money from developers, lobbyists, attorneys, and politicians from outside the ward.Everyone of those people are the same folks demonized by Helen's supporters.

    Mind-boggling heap of stupid.

  27. Does anyone know where there is information on who all is running? I've seen some campaign offices. I think the day to file was yesterday.

  28. Here you go, Mel. Not sure how you hit this old post, but here's a recent update: